Winter Storms 2024
New string to track winter storms…
There is a potential significant snow storm on Sunday January 7th.
The models are not sure what will happen but some models are showing a decent amount of snow.
LibertyThinker 
Josh I've got family scheduled to catch a flight Sunday morning. I'm watching this one very closely. Hopefully the timing is much more settled by Thurs or Fri.
GC We have a 90th Birthday celebration in Tenafly Sunday at 1---- also watching - holding breath
4catmom 
Philliesman National Weather Service - as of now:
Saturday Night
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
My weather app had the potential 1/7 storm at just over 8” yesterday. By last night it was 5.6” and today it’s dropped to 2.3” Still a week away so it’s impossible to tell. That said, the high on 1/10 is going to be mid 50s so whatever we get will be gone in a few days. These past handful of winters have STUNK, especially for my young kids. If I wanted mid 40s and rain all winter I’d live in VA or NC.
ConsigliereThe models are coming into focus …. Snow Saturday evening and all day on Sunday. Snow amount are not accurate this many days out … Some models are showing 8 inches other models are showing 18 inches.
For those who are hyper-interested:
In English: For the first time in forever, a snowstorm signal is showing for this next coming weekend (Jan 6-8). It’s early (~7 days away) so don’t get too excited yet. It could easily drop off or trend warmer like the original storm signal suggested. But today’s data is suggesting at least something happening next weekend. At this point, just know the possibility is there. I will monitor until Tuesday night. If it’s still there then it will be time for serious snowstorm tracking from Wednesday morning into the event. Happy New Year and please be safe! JC
https://www.weathernj.com/for-the-first-time-in-forever/?fbclid=IwAR2xuPkEP6EK3ZnBQYWTQAkmjjk9dGTEkVZ4w5T0FnPsV2DxNlstWgNkqFY
JeffersonRepub "The weekend snow storm is a GO"
https://www.weathernj.com/weekend-winter-storm-detected/
What’s the website of the local forecaster? I follow him religiously the last few years but must be getting old bc his website name has left my brain lol
JDP 
Greg Or NOAA. The nice thing about these guys is as the storm is rolling, they often update pretty rapidly as things might change. Shows ice too, but no ice on this one. May be finicky, it's a tool, not a product. You can dabble with the "phi" if you want to find other areas. Some covered, some not.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
babbit The 10am noaa brought us down to five inches, but like last year, we be on the edge so a little east we will get more snow, a little west, less. Same with wind but I think in reverse.
Get those sleds ready, won’t last long.
Hopefully a pleasant snow, looks like good chance. No ice, not gale force winds (so far) I am keeping the blower in front, plow better for 6 and below, blower for the deeper stuff, that’s my call and I’m sticking to it.
I just got the nixle alert, it says 4"-8", Saturday AM into Sunday. Interested to see what EPAWA calls here in a little bit.
D-ManPV I’m in Mansfield. I always look below that adjacent morris county line for my area.
But you’re right. I just checked the county lines vs the roads here, and I’m in F zone too.
Here's a forum of weather fans that have access to charts and models. They can get a little wonky with terminology but it's an interesting site to monitor. Currently northern NJ is expected to get 10.4" of snow. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59879-monitoring-first-regional-significant-winter-impact-event-magnitude-likely-tempered-at-this-time-ne-pase-ny-and-sne-primarily-jan-78/page/83/#comments
Bill.E I don’t know why, but I’m really feeling a dud here. I hope I’m wrong because my snowblower needs some good exercise.
The "E-F" line in Warren County looks to be essentially US 46 from Hackettstown to Belvidere.
ianimal Probably won’t know until dark tomorrow as east-west storm track firms up. Call it 5 to 8 in my guess. No ice, hopefully few gusts, all good, sled quick, it’s not gonna last.
Maybe 50 during the week. Wanna buy a ski slope? Getting to be super high risk round here. Gonna help drive oil prices down. May have to move North for Carolina weather soon.
Spring fever We are very near both the 2” low and 10” high lines. Someone will be screaming they get it wrong. This is threading a needle with these lines. I get it and won’t be complaining about the projections.
Big rain coming Tues/Weds. This would be bad on top of a lot of snow.
And something else for Friday/Saturday?
For what it’s worth, the weather app i mentioned earlier has 7.5” for Saturday and 1” for Sunday, so 8.5”. I think it may be time to delete this thing. Seems to always go with the high estimate instead of an average between the high and low. It’s a hype machine
Just upgraded from Winter Storm Watch to Warning... which really just means they've increased the expected totals to >6", which is in line with the EPAWA mapping from yesterday.
Looks like we are in (or very close to being in) the ‘G’ band of the latest EPAWA map. Potential for 9” of heavy wet snow.
This storm may under perform in Hackettstown. The storm may only drop 6 inches in Liberty township. I will post again Saturday morning. Yes it will be heavy wet snow.
Ok, so I’m caring about this way more than I should but looking at multiple forecasts:
NJ12: 6-9
NBC 4: 5-8
ABC 7: right on the border of 3-6 / 6-12
101.5 FM (meteorologist Dan Zarrow) 6-12
The one measurement they all have in common is 6”. If I had to make a prediction I’d say that’s what we’re getting.
What's up with this "monster" rain storm for Tuesday? I know that they like to hype things up. I've seen everything from not much right here to life-threatening floods and tornadoes.
nutcracker Consigliere, so true. I've seen so many forecasts online and on TV. We'll know when we get it. Mother Nature has fooled us many a time. I remember that surprise snowfall a few years back in October that was big and knocked out power, etc, so, I'll just wait for the flakes! (and hot chocolate)
Dog Day, that one was a nightmare... The surprise squall that took me three hours to get from one side of Hackettstown to the other with all the accidents and road closures and whatnot! Almost forgot about it.
Maps from 11 sources: https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/nj-weather-11-snow-forecast-maps-with-predictions-for-weekend-winter-storm.html
Nutcracker: our grounds are already saturated. This will be another 2-4” and cause flooding. And for those getting 6” of snow or more, it will not be just regular flooding.
I don't know if I'm thinking of the same one, but I came home from work (Washington) to find snow everywhere, trees down, a large branch blocking my driveway, and no power. The power was out for days because of all the wires that were knocked down, since the leaves were still on the trees and so many branches & trees came down. When I called out of work the next day, they thought I was nuts because there was nothing happening in Washington.
Lonesome Dove Regarding this coming Tuesday's storm, "The weather service’s New Jersey office said there are strong indications that the storm could generate as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain, and maybe more, in the Garden State — which would pose a substantial flooding threat because the ground is still wet from recent storms and will be even more saturated from the weekend storm."
OnTheEdge Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday flooding will be major issue… all the snow up north that is about to fall is then going to get 2-3 inches of rain on top of it. All that rain and melt snow needs to go someplace.
According to this hourly forecast, there's very little left for the rest of the night/Sunday.
https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/nj/hackettstown/07840
I had hoped to get ahead of the rain and clear some out while powdery - too late, it's heavy snow now.
Bovn25 It's raining with some sleet in Washington. It's been doing that for a while so it's pretty much like wet cement out there if one were to shovel it.
Doing nothing in independence. Maybe a slight spritzing. Looks over on future radar until AM. DUD!!!!
Consigliere - Dud?
I have 4 - 6" up my hill in Liberty. What's down the mountain?
Most sources said less at lower elevation. As I pointed out, we were super close to the very narrow bands that covered 2 - 10".
Maybe 3.5” here and I’m being liberal with that figure. Low end estimates from majority of sources was 6”. Not to mention the whole week worth of hype. That’s a dud to me.
Looks like 6 inches here in PV. Kind of hard to tell exactly as the wind was blowing last night & earlier. In any case - Happy Sunday everyone!
Luca2 About 4 inches down in the 'Holler. A little compression caused by a bit of the rain/ice after the bulk of the snow in the early morning.
I was shoveling here in Independence and there seems to be about 2 1/2, maybe 3, inches. But it is HEAVY. It is snowing steadily right now. Guess I'll have to shovel again.
I had six point five inches, so far. It was nice yesterday, but today, it's extra crunchy. LOL. Stay safe when driving! Wish I were a kid again to sled!
Rose DDA; take a run! Amazon ladies do it on tv ad, you can too. Park in GM school lot, top right, walk 100 yards straight back on flat field and slide on down to the ball field. The climb up may be a bit tiring but even one n done is a great day from a really good, and pretty safe, hill.
Best is 4pm or so as sun sets after hitting the hill, and hill freezes. Well, maybe not best for us “experienced” sledders.
“It’s not chemistry” lol why are you annoyed I called it a dud? It’s was a wimpy storm. DUDDDD!!!! Lol
Babbit. LOL. Yeah, but that would be the real me and not CGI sledding. I'd like to come down the hill and not have to drown myself in Bengay. ;)
I'm not annoyed just correcting the inaccuracy.
Wimpy storm is not a dud. It's a wimpy storm. This storm performed pretty much as forecasted. Given the super tight bands, it's impressive.
Duds are under performers.
dud? tell that to the 50 outages still in our area until 2pm thursday,,,,,,,,,,
Weds evening they were still keeping up with 2-4 hour estimates, must have gotten away from them. Pequest seemed pretty close to all-time high on Weds afternoon still.
We have rain event coming Friday / Saturday … but we have possible snow event on Tuesday.
What? There were outages from Sunday until Thursday from 4” of snow? If that dud of a snow storm caused 96 hours of power outages, I’d consider moving to some place without a 3rd world power grid. Unless of course you didn’t bother reading when my comment was written.
Yes, LT the Tuesday storm looks like it has some real potential. Still a bit early to tell for certain.
I would think it was more likely all the heavy rain we got after the snow, and the winds, causing trees to come down and heavy branches, taking out wires.
Correct. The storm was a dud as far as a snow event. The fact that the power grid infrastructure is antiquated and consistently fails in seemingly any level of wind/rain event in this region does not make this non event anything more than the dudapalooza it was.
Wow, no one has mentioned the 2"-4" we are supposed to get overnight into tomorrow...? LOL
JP - I normally do go alerting for small storms. I will continue to watch out for big storms.
Saw that, JR. Just cleaned the driveway of all the sticks and mini branches that fell over the past few days in preparation. There’s nothing like having to stop snow blowing to replace a shear pin with frozen fingers lol
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow will fall tonight before changing to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Tuesday morning. A period of plain rain is possible Tuesday morning before mixing with snow and tapering off Tuesday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&
It looks like a lot of the downed trees that have occurred during the past week are dead Ash trees that have been killed by the Ash Tree Borer. Unfortunately, these trees have been decimated over the past several years and now they are starting to fall down and a 40-50 mph wind gust is speeding up that process. Because these tree were very common in this area, this is going to be a big problem to take down all these dead trees.
ManAboutTown Another small wimpy low accumulation storm. Still, it’s really nice to see.
Easy to clear, too.
It was wimpy, but it might as well have been 10"!!!! I had to clean my car off three times!!
EVV Another small event coming Thursday Evening late to mid day Friday 1-3 inches. Then very very cold! And it then warms up late next week.
“Wimpy, maybe. But accurately predicted so not a dud”
Exactly my point - just like the last one.
Weather forecasters “4-8”
Reality “2.5-3”
Dud.
This isn’t too hard to follow…for most.
So the Winter Weather Advisory via Nixle says 3"-5"
The NOAA snow map shows 4"-6"
EPAWA says only 1"-3", but they may be updating their map tonight at 5pm.
Starting at about 4am.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PMEST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.
Key word there is portions. The consensus for our area is about an inch. Hope they are right.
Scott 
3wbdwnj Not often weath channel differs from noaa. They called an inch early on, calling again, looks right. Noaa at 2-4 or 3-5 depending on the weather ha ha
Calico696 I am a big believer do not pull on the devils tail … if we keep shaming these storms one will come and we could end up regretting it… let’s just say “ice storm”
Ok Yes there is potential ice event in long range forecasts… hoping we warm up enough late this week.
There is a potential snow event Sunday afternoon/evening until Monday morning.
Ronnie There is potential snow storm coming on Tuesday. More updates will follow in the coming days.
Jane 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris. In Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Northampton.
* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris. In Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Northampton.
* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PMEST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches. Locally higher amounts over the higher elevations, especially northern Warren and Morris Counties.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris. In Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Northampton.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates over 1 inch per hour are expected at times Tuesday morning, making for a potentially treacherous morning commute along the I-78 and I-80 corridors. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
I don’t see how much is going to stick. It’s going to be in the 40s over night and the ground will be wet from rain.
Ok, so can we say without any pushback that 5” or less is a dud? I’m priming the pump for a dud shaming.
Johnny 5" would not be a dud. IMO a "dud" means it did not snow at all when predicted, or barely snowed at all. If they call for 3" and you get 3", that's not a dud. If they call for 6" and you get 5", not a dud. If they call for 6" and you get 2", yes a dud.
Ok JR, that’s fair. Maybe calling a 5” storm a dud when they predict 6-10” is a bit harsh on the poor little guy.
If they call for 6-10 (mean average being 8”) and we get 4 or less, that’s def a dud.
JrzyGirl88 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.
Looks like that is the end of it. 7.5 inches in Liberty. Looks like LibertyThinker nailed it again.
Hope BryanNC is doing well, miss that guy ;)
The Rhyme Animal 
Barb The measurement in my driveway is 7". I'm in Independence. Big difference between here and Allamuchy.
I sure hope all those people on here that delight in heavy snows are happy now.
It looks great, for about 1 day. But I have to try to shovel paths to my birdfeeders and mailbox, at 75, with a bad back & arthritis in my knees, and squeeze the snowplow cost into my fixed income so that my driveway is cleared. I just don't enjoy this. Sorry I'm such an old grump.
No one discussing power outages. Anyone else out besides Schooley’s Mtn area?
Just wondering Lonesome Dove: you are not an old grump; I understand and I'm sure many others do too. We live in Indy and have 12" of Snow. It all depends upon your location in Indy. I agree that it looks good for about one day. It causes some folks grief and expense and driving to work stress on the roads.
Mrs. Pipes Thank you, Mrs. Pipes. The older I get, the grumpier I get. My family thinks I've always been grumpy, lol.
They were saying snow tonite was only going to be a coating, but now saying 2"-3" (NOAA map) or 1"-4" (NOAA Winter Weather Advisory).
EPAWA still has their early call map, only shows up to 1", but I'm sure they'll update sometime today.
Forum, As the winter weather fast approaches. We have small snow event arriving Thursday / Friday. I highly doubt anything will stick to roads in our area but farther north and west could see 1 - 2 inches… And now my thoughts on the 2024 - 25 season…. We are long over due for a snowy winter so be prepared. I will keep the forum updated as I like to watch long range forecasts on YouTube “Ryan Hall” has a great channel and he enjoys forecasting winter storms.
Enso or El Niño, weak. still calling for moderate temps below the jet stream where we should be mostly. However the middle is above the jet stream dip and will see colder temps and where above/below jet streams hit each other could be extreme weather if some kind. We hope that stays in Ohio valley. but just keep an eye on that jet stream because that’s where our fun will be.
Last year, different pacific trend but kinda same for us and rarely did the jet stream cross the Delaware.
Bsbbit I expect we get snow that doesn’t stick. Maybe a 1/2” or so. My weather app says 8.45” lol
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